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Prediction for CME (2024-08-09T21:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-08-09T21:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32663/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME visible to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is an M4.5 flare peaking at 2024-08-09T21:23Z from AR 3774 (approx. S05W40). Eruption with rising/opening field lines and dimming are best seen in SDO AIA 193, GOES 284, and STEREO A EUV 195. No clear CME arrival signatures in the solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-12T07:48Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-08-10 01:40
 - Time at C2: 2024-08-09 21:48
 - Radial speed: 887.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 45 deg
 - Eruption location: N01W31
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 672.10 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-08-12 07:48 (i.e. predicted transit time: 58.00 hours)
Lead Time: 35.00 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-08-10T20:48Z
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